How do we start to covet, Clarice? On KodanshaUSA’s plans for manga domination

While manga fans will be swooning over the special guests and new license announcements at AX this weekend, the number one topic on the lips of manga industry observers will undoubtedly be Kodansha, the largest book publisher in Japan whose long-rumored expansion into the US manga scene will finally become reality in September.  Online responses have ranged from anger at what is perceived to be another Japanese encroachment into the domestic market, worry for the American publishers who nurtured it, to hope that long-lost licenses may be resurrected, and everything in between.

What motivated Kodansha to finally take the plunge?  The obvious answer has been their desire to cut out the middle men, i.e. the American manga publishers/repackagers.  There’s no denying that jealousy at Shogakukan and Shueisha’s success with wholly-owned subsidiary Viz is the primary factor, especially if Akibanana’s estimation placing ShoShuViz’s foreign licensing income at 20 times that of Kodansha is correct (no source is provided, but this is a number I can easily believe).  However, one point where I feel there’s room for debate is the contention that Kodansha’s plans led to the recent troubles for Tokyopop, rather than being in response to a troubled market where their titles were underperforming.  While consolidated Japanese control of manga in the US was always inevitable, it was still rather shocking to see it seemingly unfold over a matter of a few short months with Tokyopop refocusing energy on original projects, and ADV all but bowing out of print for the time being.  CMX and Dark Horse have released great titles, but the manga business is ultimately a secondary concern for them.  Del Rey and DMP have not the ambitions of a Tokyopop or even an ADV (which might explain the condition in which each company finds itself).  Had Kodansha not decided to take the initiative themselves, they would have been left with the embarrassing prospect of having no one with the ability to fully utilize their vast catalog, except for Viz… something their pride will not allow.  For all the surface pleasantries during recent manga awards, Shogakukan is Kodansha’s fiercest rival, and may even overtake them as the largest publisher in Japan if current trends continue.  In other words, Kodansha had no other real option but to come into the US market now.  Their catalog was being underserved, and they know they can do better.

But is Kodansha ready to be in the US market, and is this really the best time for another manga pub?  Already, specters of Raijin and Toei are drudged up on forums, the dire condition of Borders repeated, and skeptical questions posed of their ability to localize books properly.  But while success is not guaranteed, anyone who believes Kodansha’s entrance into the market will be anything but tediously researched and meticulously planned is almost comically misinformed.  Within this fandom, there is a tendency to view everything through the isolated prism of manga.  We even draw hideously inaccurate conclusions about the greater Japanese society based on our niche.  But here’s a reality check: Kodansha has had years of international experience in translating and publishing real books (you know, the kind without pictures).  With starting capital of $2 million and the installation of VP Yoshinobu Noma as overseer of the operation, bungled translations and poor quality control should be the last things on anyone’s radar (and there can be no greater vote of confidence than the appointment of Yoshinobu… Kodansha was founded and is still run by the Noma family).  The belatedness of Kodansha’s entry will also be rewarded in another way… their patience has allowed them to observe the entirety of the US manga boom-to-slowdown cycle.  Unlike the aforementioned Raijin, Kodansha already knows the limitations of this market.

(BTW, if you are a recent manga pub refugee and have not yet started polishing up your resume for Kodansha… WTF, dude!?)

So where does that leave current US licensees?  Del Rey, for now, seems well shielded from any immediate fallout, and there’s a good reason for that… http://www.randomhouse-kodansha.co.jp/.  Dark Horse’s name comes up pretty often as another who may be adversely affected, yet MangaCast points out the publisher will continue to release Eden in 2009, which is a Kodansha property.  So it’s simply too early to pronounce doom for US manga pubs.  Kodansha certainly can spare some of the patience they had in waiting to enter the US manga market to letting DH and Del Rey finish out their licensed series.  And we still don’t even know the true scale of publishing Kodansha will undertake; they have enough books to share with other publishers, if they wished.

But all the drama over manga licenses may seem petty and pointless in a few years, because of these 4 letters: M.I.M.C..  Kodansha’s Morning International Manga Competition embodies the dreams of every manga-inspired artist around the world; Felipe Smith got to live that dream when Kodansha featured PeePoChoo on the cover of Morning 2 magazine.  Should Kodansha expand the program in America and actively solicit original contributions, they’d have instant legitimacy among legions of young creators who grew up worshipping CLAMP rather than Kirby.  So the real revelation may be that Tokyopop and the like shouldn’t be worrying about manga licenses, but all US publishers should be worrying about competition for talent from a world-class manga juggernaut.