The not-so-big picture

I say, this sounds like a challenge… The Comics Reporter asks, rather nebulously, why no one has a satisfying answer for what the future ”big picture” of translated manga will look like.  As someone with a particularly bad record on this front, I can only proffer the most obvious reasons why there hasn’t been much meaningful discussion of late…

1. The economy is catching a lot of people off-guard like deer in headlights.   No one can/wants to talk about the potential long-term atrophy of the book market with authority, because no one has a sure-fire contingency plan for it, beyond cutting staff and praying they can ride out the storm until 2010.  This isn’t just a problem for manga, but any comic publisher that depends heavily on the mainstream book trade.
2. Significant, foreseen trends in the manga industry are still being played out.
3. Among those significant trends is expanding Japanese control as licensors decide to become their own licensees, which means the Japanese publishing climate will have a more direct impact on manga publishing in the US over time.  Again, this is an area where not many people on this side of the Pacific have the necessary expertise to provide convincing analyses.  There’s far less coverage of the Japanese print publishing industry in general.

Overall, this is a pretty treacherous time for would-be manga soothesayers.  But what say you?  Don’t be embarrassed, I’ll go first…

Stripped of pee-pee humor and panty flashing that made the original so endearing, the Dragonball Evolution movie will have a sub-5 million opening week, setting into motion a catastrophic chain of events that will lead to a sacking of the American manga industry, and the permanent expulsion of the entire DBE film crew from the country.  Meanwhile, free from the publicity efforts of the mainstream pubs, porn manga will return to its early 90s dominance as the one true manga genre, selling tens of dozens of copies each month.

There’s the not-so-big picture.  And you can take that to the (IndyMac) bank!

Edit: Employing the Socratic method, Precocious Curmudgeon greatly expands on the original quandary with 8 questions, and threatens even more.

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Over at Slashdot, the Manga Guide to Statistics brings out the haters.  But don’t miss this completely awesome scan from a Korean math textbook.

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According to Canned Dogs, one half of manga-creating duo Peach Pit is battling severe illness, putting three manga series on hiatus.  Wish them well…

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BL pub Yaoi Press recounts the highs and lows in 2008, including growing bookstore sales, but some road blocks in the direct market.

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Missed it… The Anime Almanac had a chance to talk with yuri mangaka Rica Takashima at the MangaNext convention, and the conversation covered everything from the author’s own abhorrence of the surrealism of traditional yaoi and popular notions of yuri, to her rather zen view on Proposition 8.  Go read. (Caught it at: MangaBlog)

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Another great interview… Electric Ant speaks with Frederik Schodt, manga translator, scholar, and Tezuka biographer.  Much choice material in there, but the most interesting one is near the bottom of the interview, where Schodt juxtaposes manga’s current popularity in the West with Ukiyo-e, which one hopes isn’t prophetic.  (Via Journalista)